2.ENGLISH SUMMARY

Climate change is an urgent global challenge that demands immediate attention and concerted efforts to mitigate its adverse effects. The African continent, in particular, has been identified as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change impacts, with profound consequences for its ecosystems, economies, and human well-being. Recognizing the need for proactive and informed action. This project’s main target is to develop an Operational Atlas for Climate Change’s major Impacts on Continental Africa, comparing the current environmental status with the previous 30-40 years for multidisciplinary data based on earth observation Data. This will be conducted by leveraging earth observation data and advanced modeling techniques, this project will empower decision-makers and stakeholders with actionable insights, contributing to effective climate change adaptation strategies and fostering a sustainable future for the African continent. By doing so, we will contribute to the long-term planning and resilience-building efforts, helping stakeholders anticipate and adapt to the anticipated changes in climate patterns and associated impacts.

Source: AR6, synthesis report (Lee, 2022)

3.INTRODUCTION

Earth's ecosystems are impacted by climatic changes in various ways. These differences affected the ecosystems of the atmosphere, oceans, and land; however, it is still unclear how far these changes are represented. As a result, this study will examine the effects of climate change on the three primary ecosystems atmosphere, land, and marine, while taking into account several ecosystem-specific characteristics. Humans have an impact on the earth's temperature and climate Through the burning of fossil fuels, logging of tropical rainforests, and raising of farm animals. The least greenhouse gas emitting nations are in Africa, according to scientists, but by 2030, climate change could expose up to 118 million of the continent's poorest people to droughts, floods, and excessive heat. Climate change impacts have heightened environmental deterioration, besides to the population pressures which may force millions of Africans to leave their homes and cause severe social unrest. A large portion of Africa's population may be impacted by greater temperatures, rising sea levels, shifting rainfall patterns, and increased climate unpredictability, according to the majority of scientists researching the possible effects of climate change. The effects of climate change on people's daily life in Africa are numerous and wide-ranging, both current and potential. In a substantial portion of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), several climate models forecast severe effects of climate change on agricultural production and food security. One of the biggest environmental, social, and economic threats to Africa is climate change, which is already occurring as evidenced by rising temperatures, soil drying out, increased pest and disease pressure, shifts in suitable areas for raising livestock and crops, increased desertification in the Sahara, floods, deforestation, and erosion. The poorest nations in the world, many of which are in Africa, will bear a disproportionate burden from the effects of climate change

4. PROJECT DESCRIPTION:

4.1 Background

Climate science is one of the most important areas of scientific research in the world today, and we still have a lot to learn to fully understand this crucial problem. Humans are accustomed to climatic conditions that vary on daily, seasonal and inter-annual time-scales. Accumulating evidence suggests that in addition to this natural climate variability, average climatic conditions measured over extended time periods (conventionally 30 years or longer) are also changing, over and above the natural variation observed on decadal or century time-scales. The causes of this climate change are increasingly well understood. Climatologists have compared climate model simulations of the effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions against observed climate variations in the past and evaluated possible natural influences such as solar and volcanic activity. They concluded that “there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is likely to be attributable to human activities” (IPCC 2001). Warming has been observed in all continents, with the greatest temperature changes occurring at middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Patterns of precipitation have also changed: arid and semi-arid regions are apparently becoming drier, while other areas, especially mid-to-high latitudes, are becoming wetter. Where precipitation has increased, there has also been a disproportionate increase in the frequency of the heaviest precipitation events. The small amount of climatic change that has occurred so far has already had demonstrable effects on a wide variety of natural ecosystems. Considering a range of alternative economic development scenarios and model parameterizations, the IPCC concluded that if no specific actions were taken to reduce GHG emissions, global temperatures would rise between 1.4 and 5.8°C from 1990 to 2100. The precipitation and wind speed projections are less consistent in terms of magnitude and geographical distribution but also suggest significant changes in both mean conditions and the frequency and intensity of extreme events. The main cause of recent climate change is the release of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere as a result of human activities such as fossil fuel combustion and land-use change. Pre-industrial (circa. 1750) atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations measured 277 parts per million and have risen significantly since exceeding 400 parts per million in 2015 – unprecedented since records began. Greenhouse gases released by human activities trap outgoing infrared radiation within the Earth’s atmosphere, enhancing the natural greenhouse effect and resulting in anthropogenically induced global warming. This increase in temperature leads to other observable effects on the climate system, such as more frequent, intense, and protracted extreme weather events, with increasingly detrimental impacts on societies. Earth's ecosystems are impacted by climatic changes in various ways. These differences affected the ecosystems of the atmosphere, oceans, and land; however, it is still unclear how far these changes are represented. As a result, this study will examine the effects of climate change on the three primary ecosystems atmosphere, land, and marine, while taking into account several ecosystem-specific characteristics. Humans have an impact on the earth's temperature and climate Through the burning of fossil fuels, logging of tropical rainforests, and raising of farm animals. The least greenhouse gas-emitting nations are in Africa, according to scientists, but by 2030, climate change could expose up to 118 million of the continent's poorest people to droughts, floods, and excessive heat (Hoffmann, 2022, Tongwane , et al., 2018, Ruocco, et al., 2015). Climate change impacts have heightened environmental deterioration, besides to the population pressures which may force millions of Africans to leave their homes and cause severe social unrest (Buhaug, et al., 2013, Reuveny,2007). A large portion of Africa's population may be impacted by greater temperatures, rising sea levels, shifting rainfall patterns, and increased climate unpredictability, according to the majority of scientists researching the possible effects of climate change. The effects of climate change on people's daily life in Africa are numerous and wide-ranging, both current and potential. In a substantial portion of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), several climate models forecast severe effects of climate change on agricultural production and food security, (Cairns, et al.2013, Chijioke, et al., 2011). One of the biggest environmental, social, and economic threats to Africa is climate change, which is already occurring as evidenced by rising temperatures, soil drying out, increased pest and disease pressure, shifts in suitable areas for raising livestock and crops, increased desertification in the Sahara, floods, deforestation, and erosion (Azare, et al., 2020). The poorest nations in the world, many of which are in Africa, will bear a disproportionate burden from the effects of climate change (Prouty, 2009). This project would provide regional assessments of observed and projected climate change over Africa, which facilitates a more nuanced assessment in this section of climate and ocean phenomena that impact African systems.

4.2 International Literature Review Related to RWH

According to the IPCC 6th Assessment Report, key development sectors in Africa have already experienced widespread losses and damages attributable to human-induced climate change, including loss of lives, biodiversity loss, water shortages, reduced food production, and reduced economic growth (IPCC, 2022). Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to the impacts of climate change and at higher levels of warming, climate change impacts across the continent will lead to severe losses and damages to health and other health and wellbeing determinants such as agriculture, water, energy, and economies. Key risks for Africa include biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, reduced food production from crops, fisheries, and livestock, and mortality and morbidity from heat and infectious diseases, all of which will have severe impacts on population health and health systems in Africa. Examples of some climate-related health outcomes in Africa are summarized in the figure below. Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world and climate change has profound and far-reaching impacts on the region. Responses to climate change include mitigation, which seeks to reduce climate change and its many hazards, and adaptation, which seeks to reduce risks and impacts, by reducing vulnerability and exposure, or by adapting to the changes as far as possible. This policy brief focuses on the latter. Adaptation focuses on adjusting systems, policies, practices, and behaviors to cope with and adapt to the changing climate conditions. It is important to recognize that adaptation differs from coping strategies in its approach and long-term perspective. Coping strategies are often reactive, short-term responses aimed at managing immediate impacts and addressing immediate needs. In contrast, adaptation takes a proactive and long-term perspective approach by identifying and implementing measures to prepare for and adapt to the observed and projected impacts of climate change. It involves systematic planning, implementation, and monitoring to build resilience and reduce vulnerability over the long run.

4.2.1 Climate Hazards in Africa

Observed climate changes impacts and risks: Examples:

• Temperature:
• Precipitation rates:
• Marine heatwaves
• Water system (scarcity – draught)
• Impacts on African Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
• Risks for African Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
• Nature-based Tourism in Africa

IPCC, 2022 – Chapter 9

The figure above (Trios, et al., 2022) shows how temperature increases due to human-caused climate change are detected across Africa and many regions have warmed more rapidly than the global average. Mean observed trends in (a) average temperature (°C per decade) and (b) average precipitation in (mm per decade) for 1980–2015. Trends were calculated concerning the climatological mean from 1980–2015. The Climate Research Unit Time Series data (CRU TS) are used to compute temperature trends using 2-m temperature and the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre data (GPCC) precipitation trends. Regions with no cross-hatching indicate statistically significant trends over this period and regions in grey indicate insufficient data. Trisos, C.H., I.O. Adelekan, E. Totin, A. Ayanlade, J. Efitre, A. Gemeda, K. Kalaba, C. Lennard, C. Masao, Y. Mgaya, G. Ngaruiya, D. Olago, N.P. Simpson, and S. Zakieldeen, 2022: Africa. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1285–1455, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.011. Marine heatwaves are periods of extreme warm sea surface temperature that persist for days to months and can extend up to thousands of kilometres (Hobday et al., 2016; Scannell et al., 2016), negatively impacting marine ecosystems (Section 9.6.1.4). The number of marine heatwaves doubled in Mediterranean north Africa and along the Somalian and southern African coastlines from 1982–2016 (Frölicher et al., 2018; Oliver et al., 2018; Laufkötter et al., 2020), very likely as a result of human-caused climate change (Seneviratne et al., 2021). Marine heatwave intensity has increased along the southern African coastline (Oliver et al., 2018). Much of Africa experiences very high hydrological variability in all components of the water cycle, with important implications for people and ecosystems. Most of the continent’s water is stored in groundwater (660,000 km 3), which is 20 times more than the water stored in the lakes and 100 times more than the annual renewable water resources (MacDonald et al., 2012).

4.2.2. Key Risks in Africa

Risks increase with increasing levels of global warming, as shown by this Burning Embers figure for selected key risks from climate change in Africa. Risk increases are assessed for the levels of global warming above pre-industrial (1850–1900). All three risks are assessed to have already transitioned to moderate risk by the recent level of global warming 2010–2020 (1.09°C). Risks are characterized as undetectable, moderate, high, or very high, and the transition between risk levels as a function of global warming is represented by the color change of each bar (IPCC, 2022). IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 3056 pp., doi:10.1017/9781009325844.

Vertical lines show the range of global warming for a change in the risk level. The dots indicate the confidence level for a given transition in risk and are placed at the level of global warming that is the assessed best estimate for that increase in the risk level

Projected changes represent the aggregate changes characteristic for mid-century for a range of scenarios, including medium emission scenarios RCP4.5, SSP3-4.5, Scenario A1B from Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), or higher emissions scenarios (e.g., RCP8.5, SSP5-RCP8.5), within each AR6 WGI region (inset map) approximately corresponding to global warming levels between 2°C and 2.4°C (for CIDs that are independent of sea level rise). CIDs are drivers of impacts that are of climatic origin (that is, physical climate system conditions including means and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Changes shown that projected to impact and change are:

1. Mean temperature change (°C);
2. Change in the number of days per year above 35°C (days);
3. Mean annual rainfall change (%);
4. Heavy precipitation change represented by annual maximum 5-day precipitation (%);
5. Change in drought represented by the six-month standardized precipitation index (SPI) (%) – negative changes indicate areas where drought frequency, intensity, and/or duration is projected to increase, and positive changes show the opposite;
6. Mean sea surface temperature change (°C).

4.3 Problem Definition in View of the Local Needs

There is a strong lack in citations, regional information, and local & indigenous knowledge about Africa as a whole continent. Most of the global reports depend on global citations and make a generalization application everywhere especially for areas that are poor in scientific research or used research on Africa from outside Africa. Therefore, this project is focusing on creating a huge remote sensing- database that covers the main three categories of the environment with several climate-related attributes. This will help to understand the Driver-Pressure-Stat-Response relationships among all interconnected factors in a screening preliminary study and hence justify the change in any land-use/land-cover activity. The outcomes of the project (Atlas contains maps with various layers, reports of technical and non-technical status, and the interactive dashboard) will support decision-makers of higher levels together with low-scale stakeholders to plan for adaptation as well as mitigation in the future. The most vulnerable countries (including Egypt) are to be defined for a future study to scope down for a deep regional/local level of study

4.4 Summary of the Request

To implement this research project there is a need for:

• There is a need to allocate a budget for the project activities for a year (for the screening continental screening study). Based on the results, a phase II could be conducted next year for the scoping study) and may be extended to a second year (for the scoping regional level).
• Use the data (ESA Copernicus & EUMETSAT data) produced from the division's recently deployed eStaion.
• To support satellite data validation, field trips are needed for in-situ measurements (across Egypt with some selecting study areas) and Cars, ASD devices, air quality devices, and other instruments would be needed.
• Good internet connectivity to download the time series satellite images from different sources.
• Models to simulate, and forecast the impact of climate changes and the magnitude of hazards in 2100
• Statistics and references from sources to understand the impact of climate changes and natural hazards on the economy and social development.
• Resources, including Human resources and Equipment and facilities, such as; computers, software packages for data analysis, and enough storage capacity.

4.5 Summary of the objectives and proposed methods

Different parameters as air temperature, land surface temperature, and sea surface temperature will be estimated using satellite data which will be integrated with different models to represent the current situation and the expected ones. The overall objective of this research project is to produce up-to-date and regular information and maps on the national vulnerability based on the selected environmental indicators. Examples of some specific objectives of this project are:

1. Map the climate change impacts on specific indicators
2. Identify and map some natural hazards,
3. Detect and map the vulnerable hot spot areas/countries and define which of the five African regions.
4. To map the population vulnerability to climate change.
5. To support decision-makers with regular maps, information, and recommendations
6. Produce a quality printed Atlas with all maps
7. Generate a dashboard or a geoportal that offers an interactive portal for users
8. To publish good articles in peer-reviewed journals

4.6 The consequences of the project as a result of funding

1. Comprehensive Data Collection: Gather and compile a wide range of earth observation data, including satellite imagery, climate variables, land cover information, and socio-economic data, to establish a robust and comprehensive database
2. Climate Change Impact Assessment: Conduct a thorough assessment of climate change impacts on various sectors in Africa, including agriculture, water resources, biodiversity, human health, and socio-economic systems, using advanced analytical tools and modeling techniques
3. Predictive Modeling: Develop and implement sophisticated predictive models that integrate historical climate data, current trends, and future climate scenarios to project the potential impacts of climate change in Africa up to the year 2100.
4. Atlas Development: Create an operational atlas “Dashboard” that synthesizes and visualizes the collected data, assessment findings, and predictions in a user-friendly and interactive manner. The atlas should provide accessible information, maps, and graphics that enable stakeholders to understand and navigate climate change impacts at regional, national, and local scales
5. Capacity Building and Stakeholder Engagement: Foster collaboration and knowledge exchange with regional and national institutions, research organizations, and local communities. Conduct training programs and workshops to enhance the capacity of stakeholders in utilizing the atlas and understanding climate change impacts to inform decision-making processes
6. Policy Support and Decision-Making: Provide policymakers and decision-makers with evidence-based information and recommendations derived from the atlas to facilitate the formulation and implementation of effective climate change adaptation strategies at different levels. Support the integration of climate change considerations into development plans, policies, and programs.
7. Awareness and Outreach: Raise awareness about the urgency of addressing climate change impacts in Africa among the general public, media, and key stakeholders. Disseminate the atlas findings through targeted communication strategies, including reports, publications, online platforms, and outreach events, to ensure broad accessibility and utilization of the generated knowledge.
8. Monitoring and Evaluation: Continuously monitor and evaluate the effectiveness and impact of the atlas, assessing its contribution to climate change adaptation efforts in Africa. Incorporate feedback and updates to ensure the atlas remains a dynamic and valuable resource for ongoing decision-making processes

4.7 How the project is innovative

In response to the new approach of the research and development in the National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences for the Fiscal year 2023/2024, This project to meet the:

1. Thematic Area Number 3 – Climate Changes, and integrated with;
2. Thematic Area Number 1 – Innovation “Developing operational application/dashboard”. The project will study climate change on regional and continental levels with its direct implications on the national community particularly the newly developed zones in the western desert.

4.8 Short-Term and Long-Term Objectives:

• Establish a robust and comprehensive database based on earth observation data, climate variables, land cover information, and socio-economic data.
• Assess climate change impact on various sectors in Africa, including agriculture, water resources, biodiversity, human health, and socio-economic systems, using advanced analytical tools and modeling techniques.
• Develop and implement sophisticated predictive models that integrate historical climate data, current trends, and future climate scenarios to project the potential impacts of climate change in Africa up to the year 2100
• Create an operational atlas “Dashboard” that synthesizes and visualizes the collected data, assessment findings, and predictions in a user-friendly and interactive manner.
• Foster collaboration and knowledge exchange with regional and national institutions, research organizations, and local communities.
• Conduct training programs and workshops to enhance the capacity of stakeholders to utilize the atlas and understanding climate change impacts to inform decision-making processes
• Provide policymakers and decision-makers with evidence-based information and recommendations derived from the atlas to facilitate the formulation and implementation of effective climate change adaptation strategies at different levels.
• Support the integration of climate change considerations into development plans, policies, and programs
• Raise awareness about the urgency of addressing climate change impacts in Africa among the general public, media, and key stakeholders.
• Disseminate the atlas findings through targeted communication strategies, including reports, publications, online platforms, and outreach events, to ensure broad accessibility and utilization of the generated knowledge.
• Continuously monitor and evaluate the effectiveness and impact of the atlas, assessing its contribution to climate change adaptation efforts in Africa.
• Incorporate feedback and updates to ensure the atlas remains a dynamic and valuable resource for ongoing decision-making processes

4.9 Methodology:

To achieve the objectives of this project, multiple satellite data from different sources will be used. Various climate change indicators will be studied to assess the impacts of climate change in Africa in different ecosystems. The study duration will be for the last two decades. The studied parameters will be as follows:

• Carbon emissions
Carbon content in the atmosphere is the main reason for global warming, thus studying carbon emissions is fundamental. In this study, data from AIRS satellite was used to estimate the Carbon dioxide and Methane emissions over Africa, showing the impacts of the high emissions.
• Warming
Africa warmed faster than the global average temperature over land and ocean combined. This is consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on climate change and land, which showed that land areas have consistently warmed faster than the global average. Predominantly tropical areas have warmed more slowly than higher latitudes such as Asia and Europe (WMO, 2019). Warming and air temperature is an important indicator for climate change. Air temperature over Africa will be studied for the last two decades using AIRS satellite data to study the warming in the region. AIRS, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on NASA's Aqua satellite, gathers infrared energy emitted from Earth's surface and atmosphere globally, daily. Its data provides 3D measurements of temperature through the atmospheric column along with a host of trace gases, surface and cloud properties. In addition, the heat waves can be analyzed based on air temperature data.
• Precipitation rate
Precipitation in Africa is highly variable in space owing to diverse and complex topographical features and circulation regimes, but also on a temporal scale owing to various large-scale climate drivers as well as the usual internal variability that characterizes precipitation in general. In this project, the precipitation rate was obtained from the Merra-2 model over the study area during the last two decades.
• Drought
Drought is an important indicator of climate change in Africa. In this research, the areas exposed to drought risks will be defined based on satellite data. Indices such as Soil moisture, Normalized difference vegetation index, precipitation rate, and air temperature can be used to define these areas. Changes in soil moisture (SM) for the last 20 years period will be studied using NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System Version 2. Moreover, the changes in land surface temperature (LST) can be a good indicator of drought hazards. LST can be obtained using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. In addition, the variations in vegetation cover can show the areas degraded due to drought. This can be detected through the Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). This index can be obtained through MODIS satellite data during the last two decades to show the temporal variations in vegetation cover and areas suffering from drought.
• Dust storms
Dust storms frequently occur in Africa due to the topographic features, location, and climate variables. The aerosol loading will be obtained by using satellite data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra satellite over Africa. Level 3 MODIS aerosol data are available in a gridded format with a spatial resolution of 1° × 1°.
• Ocean warming
Ocean warming can be defined through Sea surface temperature (SST) data. SST was estimated using satellite data derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer Satellite (MODIS-Aqua)-daytime measurement. Level 3 (4 km) monthly Standard Mapped Image (SMI) data was used for SST. The study will estimate the average temperatures during the last two decades.
• Chlorophyll Content
The water sector is strongly influenced by, and sensitive to, changes in climate (Boko, et al., 2007). Chlorophyll content in water can show the changes in phytoplankton and living plants in water which is a good reflection of environmental conditions in the water. Chlorophyll content can be obtained from satellite data derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer Satellite (MODIS-Aqua)-daytime measurement, Level 3 (4 km).
• Sea surface salinity
Sea surface salinity (SSS) can be obtained from the Aquarius sensor, which can detect subtle changes in the ocean’s microwave emission that are caused by salinity. NASA’s Aquarius sensor is carried into space to provide scientists with long-term, global-scale salinity data critical to our understanding of the water cycle, ocean circulation, and climate. SSS will be obtained for the study areas according to data availability.

4.10 Expected Outcomes:

The overarching objective of this project is to create an operational atlas that provides comprehensive insights into the current and future impacts of climate change on the African continent. Through the utilization of advanced earth observation data and cutting-edge predictive models, this atlas will serve as a valuable tool for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders in making informed decisions, implementing effective adaptation measures, and formulating sustainable development strategies The project's key focus will be on continental climate change impacts, encompassing and assessing a wide range of sectors such as agriculture, water resources, human health, and socio-economic systems. By employing -the available- state-of-the-art satellite imagery, remote sensing techniques, and climate modeling, we aim to capture the complex and interconnected dynamics of climate change and its cascading effects across different regions of Africa, through the five geographical sectors; north, east, west, central and south). Furthermore, the project will extend its scope to provide predictions up to the year 2100, taking into account various climate change scenarios and projections based on the results made by the IPCC in the sixth synthesis report (Lee, 2022) on changes in CO2 emissions with the changing temperature 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.2 °C. To ensure the practicality and applicability of the atlas, our project will establish close collaborations with regional and national institutions, climate experts, research organizations, and local communities. By actively involving key stakeholders throughout the development process, we aim to foster knowledge exchange, capacity building, and ownership, thereby creating a truly impactful and sustainable resource for climate change adaptation in Africa

4.11 Beneficiaries (الجهات المستفيدة)

1. At a local Level :
   • Ministry of Environment
   • Ministry of Agriculture
   • Ministry of Water Resources
   • Coastal governorates
   • Beaches Protection Authorities
2. At a Regional/Continental Level :
   • Researchers and university students in Egypt and Africa
   • Environmental, agricultural, and water organizations in Africa
   • Small and medium enterprises and private sectors
   • African Space Agency (if it starts its work by then)

5. Time Schedule of Activities:

The project will be performed in one working year for the screening continental study and might be follows by a deep scoping study for the major vulnerable countries. The time frame of the whole project and activities are displayed in the schedule (next)

6.References

Boko, M., I. Niang, . Nyong, C. Vogel, . Githeko, M. Medany, B. Osman-Elasha, R. Tabo and P. Yanda, 2007: Africa. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutik of, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK, 433-467. WMO, 2019: 2019 State of Climate Services. Agriculture and Food Security (WMO-No. 1242). Geneva. Hoffmann, R. (2022). Contextualizing climate change impacts on human mobility in African drylands. Earth's Future, 10(6), e2021EF002591. Tongwane, M. I., & Moeletsi, M. E. (2018). A review of greenhouse gas emissions from the agriculture sector in Africa. Agricultural Systems, 166, 124-134. Di Ruocco, A., Gasparini, P., & Weets, G. (2015). Urbanisation and climate change in Africa: Setting the scene. 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Deforestation, desert encroachment, climate change and agricultural production in the Sudano-Sahelian Region of Nigeria. Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management, 24(1), pp.127-132. - Buhaug, H. and Urdal, H., 2013. An urbanization bomb? Population growth and social disorder in cities. Global environmental change, 23(1), pp.1-10. - Cairns, J.E., Hellin, J., Sonder, K., Araus, J.L., MacRobert, J.F., Thierfelder, C. and Prasanna, B.M., 2013. Adapting maize production to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Food Security, 5, pp.345-360. - Chijioke, O.B., Haile, M. and Waschkeit, C., 2011. Implication of climate change on crop yield and food accessibility in Sub-Saharan Africa. Centre for Development Research. Bonn: University of Bonn. - Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. 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